AV's 2012 Oscar Contest

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AV's 2012 Oscar Contest

Postby James » February 6th, 2012, 8:53 am

Animated Views is giving away a $50 Amazon gift certificate! All you have to do is predict who is going to win at the 84th Annual Academy Awards (to be held on Sunday, February 26th on ABC). The person with the most correct picks will win!

Make your prediction in each category using the form here. Don't forget to fill in your Animated Views forum username and the password (check your profile if you have forgotten). Not a forum member? Registration is free and easy so why not sign-up now! Forum registration is required to confirm your email address (so we can contact you if you win) and to weed out spambots.

All entries must be received by Friday, February 24, at 11:59pm ET. One entry per person please. If you send more than one entry, only the first one received will be counted. You can view and print your ballot any time on the ballot review page.

And don't forget to join us on Oscar night for a live chat! We'll talk about the people, the fashions, the story-lines, and the awards. We'll also be keeping track who is winning our contest in real time!

Full details are available on the contest page.

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Postby James » February 6th, 2012, 11:07 am

Hey guys! Though the submission page looks the same, I've totally redone the back end of the contest entry pages. Please let me know of any errors or problems or bugs you find.

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Postby Dacey » February 6th, 2012, 5:02 pm

I already entered. I know I can't win the prize as a staff member, but it's still fun to play anyway. :)
"Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today is a gift--that is why it's called the present."

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Postby James » February 7th, 2012, 12:20 am

Here's a little trivia about the ballots received as of the first day: every entry so far agrees on who will win in 5 different categories.

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Postby EricJ » February 7th, 2012, 1:20 pm

Yeah, but you deliberately made it tough requiring VFX and Animated to be the qualifying tie-breakers, and those were the two most frustratingly 50-50 categories this year besides Picture.

(For ex., VFX: Hugo to "validate" 3D for those not voting for Picture, or Apes to validate the push for Andy Serkis's mocap?
Animation, Rango as mainstream but too weird, or Chico & Rita as innovative alternative but not mainstream?)

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Re:

Postby laughingoctopus » February 7th, 2012, 5:35 pm

EricJ wrote:Yeah, but you deliberately made it tough requiring VFX and Animated to be the qualifying tie-breakers, and those were the two most frustratingly 50-50 categories this year besides Best Picture.

I disagree. Animation and Best Picture are the easiest categories to guess. Especially after the Annie's and Golden Globes, and all the Oscar predictors unanimously predicting The Artist for Best Pic and Rango for Animation, those two look fairly obvious. The acting catergories are the ones I had trouble with, as there is no clear front runner. I could end up being completely wrong about everything, but I think The Artist and Rango are the clear favorites for their respective catergories.

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Postby Bill1978 » February 9th, 2012, 11:37 pm

I normally would say The Artist was a lock, but I'm just thinking about the Brokeback Mountain year when Crash won. The Help is a very similar movie to Crash going into this race. Both won a surprise SAG Ensemble (equivalent to Best Picture) and both are about race issues. And both didn't have an awesome amount of nominations. So both in theory had/have a lot of support from theacting branch who are the largest group in the Academy voters.

I'm not saying the Help would win, but using this bit of history it wouldn't surprise me if it did upset the favourite. Which kinda makes my predicting a little bit too hard, I guess the question is how much do I want to win LOL

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Re:

Postby brimicbed » February 10th, 2012, 12:23 am

Bill1978 wrote:I normally would say The Artist was a lock, but I'm just thinking about the Brokeback Mountain year when Crash won. The Help is a very similar movie to Crash going into this race. Both won a surprise SAG Ensemble (equivalent to Best Picture) and both are about race issues. And both didn't have an awesome amount of nominations. So both in theory had/have a lot of support from theacting branch who are the largest group in the Academy voters.

I'm not saying the Help would win, but using this bit of history it wouldn't surprise me if it did upset the favourite. Which kinda makes my predicting a little bit too hard, I guess the question is how much do I want to win LOL


Crash also won screenplay and editing in addition to being nominated for directing. The Help isn't nominated for any of these.

Some facts

Last movie to win Best Picture without also winning screenplay (but was nominated): Million Dollar Baby
Last movie to win Best Picture without being nominated for screenplay: Titanic
Last movie to win Best Picture without being nominated for directing: Driving Miss Daisy
Last movie to win Best Picture without being nominated for editing: Ordinary People

So those 3 are pretty important and having none of them pretty muh makes it impossble for The Help to win.

If there is an upset (which I doubt), it'll be Hugo.

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Re: Re:

Postby laughingoctopus » February 10th, 2012, 12:29 am

brimicbed wrote:
If there is an upset (which I doubt), it'll be Hugo.

I respectfully disagree, I'd expect Moneyball or even Midnight in Paris before Hugo.

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Postby Bill1978 » February 10th, 2012, 6:16 am

If Hugo wins, it will be the first PG film to win Best Picture since Driving Miss Daisy. So The Help would have just as much chance as Hugo if we want to use stats to support our arguments ;)

If I was a betting person, I would still put my money on The Artist though.

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Re:

Postby EricJ » February 10th, 2012, 12:54 pm

Bill1978 wrote:If Hugo wins, it will be the first PG film to win Best Picture since Driving Miss Daisy. So The Help would have just as much chance as Hugo if we want to use stats to support our arguments ;)
If I was a betting person, I would still put my money on The Artist though.


I have heard...SO many people in the last week--Roger Ebert included--make the Freudian slip of "Hugo was good, but is the Academy ready for motion capture?"
:shock:

I'm just about ready to club the next person who confuses Martin Scorsese's plucky, adventurous live-action 3D with Steven Spielberg & Peter Jackson's plucky, adventurous 3D CGI, but realistically, I'm starting to wonder how many VOTERS are making the same mistake when filling out their ballots. (Tintin not being nominated in many other categories to remind them which is which doesn't help either.)
I could see Hugo losing to The Artist fair and square--not happy about it, but I could see it--but I'm not ready to see Hugo lose on a goofy technicality or human error. :x
brimicbed wrote:Last movie to win Best Picture without also winning screenplay (but was nominated): Million Dollar Baby
Last movie to win Best Picture without being nominated for screenplay: Titanic
Last movie to win Best Picture without being nominated for directing: Driving Miss Daisy
Last movie to win Best Picture without being nominated for editing: Ordinary People
If there is an upset (which I doubt), it'll be Hugo.

Last Directors to win on individual merit without taking Best Picture:
- Steven Spielberg, Saving Private Ryan (Picture: Shakespeare in Love)l
- Steven Soderbergh, Traffic (Picture: Gladiator)
- Roman Polanski, The Pianist (Picture: Chicago)
- Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain (Picture: Crash)

At least we have THOSE stats to hope for.

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Re: AV's 2012 Oscar Contest

Postby Randall » February 11th, 2012, 1:08 am

Last night, while out at a late Christmas staff party (the boss was a little late getting organized this past year!), I once again had to tell someone that Hugo was NOT animated. It's just bizarre. Also common is the perception that Hugo is a fantasy/like Harry Potter/the one about magic.

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Re: AV's 2012 Oscar Contest

Postby EricJ » February 11th, 2012, 8:40 am

Randall wrote:Last night, while out at a late Christmas staff party (the boss was a little late getting organized this past year!), I once again had to tell someone that Hugo was NOT animated. It's just bizarre. Also common is the perception that Hugo is a fantasy/like Harry Potter/the one about magic.


Well, THAT you can blame on trailers about magic clockwork robots.
Admittedly, there wasn't much about the movie you could sell without giving the good stuff away, and people thought any children's book in the movies that they hadn't read was Harry Potter.

As for Hugo/Tintin, I'm guessing it's the Famous Directors Playing With 3-D factor, and people thought there was only one of them. I, um, guess.
That, or the Robert Zemeckis factor that any Famous Director Who Plays With 3-D must probably be doing that computer stuff, so Scorsese was too.

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Re: AV's 2012 Oscar Contest

Postby James » February 15th, 2012, 2:32 pm

Just a reminder that there are only 9 more days to enter. Ballot submissions are way down from previous years for some reason. Good news for the chances of those who did enter I guess!

Don't forget, this year you can see what you picked here: http://animatedviews.com/contest/oscar2012/review.html

Major consensus in 6 of the categories, with at least 90% of players agreeing on the winner!

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Re: AV's 2012 Oscar Contest

Postby James » February 21st, 2012, 12:27 pm

Just 3 and a half days left to enter! Entries are running about half the numbers we usually get so your chances of winning are that much better this time out!

http://animatedviews.com/contest/oscar2012/

As I previously mentioned you can view/print your already submitted ballot here:

http://animatedviews.com/contest/oscar2012/review.html

And new this year, besides following along with us in the chat room you can now see how everyone is doing in the contest as the awards are announced here:

http://animatedviews.com/contest/oscar2012/results.php