The Princess and the Frog

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Post by PatrickvD » December 4th, 2008, 9:18 am

I think this is a crucial moment where Disney needs to show full confidence in their product and not back out.

Bolt proved that WDAS under Lasseter is more than capable of making old school Disney flicks.

Everyone knows both Chipmunks and Spyro are gonna suck, so I think in terms of promotion Disney needs to go ALL OUT. They know how to market Pixar films, so it's time for them step up to the game and put together a marketing campaign that seriously kicks ass.

People grew up watching the classic Disney films. If they brings the right product that audience will return.

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Post by Ben » December 4th, 2008, 9:36 am

Well <I>we</I> know that Alvin will suck...but when you have two kids wanting to see the sequel to a massive hit from last summer - which they will <I>remember</I> in a bit of brand marketing - are you going to take them to that or to what might still be misconstrued as something "old".

You have to think that, for now, kids didn't grow up watching classic Disney films. Their parents did, but that might not be enough to get them to drag along their kids to a sophisticated period-set musical instead of a loud, ADD-friendly commercial movie with a built in audience who'll probably watch the original on DVD or whatever the morning they go out to see the new one.

The mindset that kids have today is that hand-drawn animation is what you get on TV, not just from weekly episodic series but in the way they <I>do</I> see the Disney classics...but to them they're not classics - they don't matter if they were made 60 years ago or last week...it's just animation on a television. The big screen experience has all been about realistic looking talking toys, cars, bugs, prehistoric creatures, robots and chipmunks.

Spyro I think will simply spiral off into mediocre figures. But Alvin is <I>real competition</I>. We can be all rosy and hopeful as we like, but Fox didn't plump for that date because they thought both films could succeed! This is all out war between the two opposing factors of animated filmmaking in 2009: the classy, classic old-school approach vs. the hyper, modern, messy franchise ethos.

Seriously, with all the marketing muscle in the world, Disney is going to have to fight for two audiences: convincing the parents that bringing them to the return of the films they loved so much is a good idea - and that this will be as good as those, no pressure! - and the kid audiences, to say "forget the ultra-hip comedy with the tunes you know and the fart gags you love, we've got something just as good, and it won't be boring with ballads or an intricate love-story, it'll be fun".

For every single image of Alvin looking out from a poster and igniting the "I wanna see that" in all the kids that made the first one such a hit, Disney will have to first of all ignite interest. Then build the trust that what they have is good. Then, and only then, the kids <I>might</I> be interested in it. Parents can drag them all they want, but if a child wants to see Alvin and every other kid in the class is seeing Alvin, they're going to wail through Princess And The Frog.

Whatever this post sounded like, I'm hoping Disney pulls it out of the magic hat. I'm obviously rooting for Princess And The Frog...but I'm also able to see the game Fox is playing. If Disney has any sense they'll roll out a few days early or even move the slot back a week to catch an earlier Christmas audience.

Their December 25 date made it something special, but Alvin has slopped all over that and made it a commercial grabbing. You guys <I>have</I> to see the reasoning that confirms, so sadly, that Alivn poses a <I>real</I> threat. :(

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Post by PatrickvD » December 4th, 2008, 9:48 am

yes Alvin is a very real threat.

But history has also taught us these sequels don't improve over their predecessors. Scooby Doo, Garfield, 102 Dalmatians, heck even Babe 2, all failed to match the succes of the original.

So odds are against Alvin to make more than $200 million. Of course that doesn't mean it won't come close. In my opinion, moving the release date back a few days could really help build some steam and word of mouth that would make Alvind look like the less interesting Holiday pick. If they go head to head, it will either be a tie or go to Alvin. If they move it to after Alvin, the ship will have sailed.

we'll see. For now I hope Disney can give us some trailers and posters similair to what they did in the 90s. A trailer that reminds the audience that it's from the creators of Aladdin and The Little Mermaid won't hurt either.

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Post by droosan » December 4th, 2008, 9:54 am

A threat to the kid audience only. And even there, mostly only among boys.

If Disney is smart, their marketing will very much play-up the "All Ages" appeal which I assume The Princess and the Frog will have. They'll go for the date-movie crowd, the nostalgic crowd, and so on.

Certainly, Alvin could put a crimp on PatF's opening weekend .. but casting a wider audience 'net' should play out in Disney's favor, in the long run.

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Post by Ben » December 4th, 2008, 10:02 am

The odds against Alvin doing $200m are perfectly right, of course, but that's still, say $70-120m that <I>doesn't</I> go to Princess And The Frog.

Suggesting that Princess will only make around $200m or slightly less, going on recent figures for such fare and being a little hopeful, then that's again a $70-120m hit that the film takes, only grossing around $100m or so.

That's not going to be seen as a hit - especially with upwards of $40m spent on advertising - that will confirm audiences want to see traditional animation again.

At Christmas time, money can only be spread so thin, and after the gift giving there's usually only a chance of <I>one</I> theater trip, especially given the current climate, which will have hopefully moved on a bit by a year's time. <I>But</I> those films that have made lots of coin around this release date have never had as stiff competition from the same kind of film in the same field.

Fox are understandably going for the Night At The Museum crowd, and that film obliterated anything else out there for early January. If Disney doesn't bring back Princess - even under the guise of "previews" - I'm telling you now that either Alvin will rule and squash Disney's animation plans, or that both films will come out with mediocre results. Whichever way it swings, Princess can't win without shelling out <I>so</I> much money to create word of mouth that the eventual return will impact the takings it <I>does</I> achieve.

At Spyro in as a lacklustre contender, and you'll find that the audience on the fence could well simply end up missing out on both big guns and going for that instead, making no-one a clear winner. In order to impress the bean counters, Princess <I>needs</I> to be a clean win.

Aladdin and The Little Mermaid were long ago, tarnished by television series and sequels that may even put off some kids (after Ariel's Beginning, a six year old girl in the family wants nothing to do with Ariel again)...and again adding those titles into a campaign is reaching more for the parents who saw those as kids and need to be tempted in hoping the film would be as good as those they saw.

It is, unfortunately, an uphill struggle that just got a very heavy cart dropped in front of it.

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Post by Dacey » December 4th, 2008, 11:24 am

Well, um, OF COURSE Disney should move the film now.

Say what you will about the first "Alvin," but it was an EXTREMELY kid-friendly movie. If it I had been six years old when I saw it, it might've become my favorite film of all time!

Disney CAN'T afford for "Princess" to flop. Not with all of the hype that's been surrounding it. They're just going to have to pick a different date now.
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Post by Neal » December 4th, 2008, 6:53 pm

I'm worried, too. We NEED it to succeed. Lasseter has sway but not enough to bring back 2D officially if PatF fails.

Alvin wasn't that good, IMHO. Even if I was a kid, I still believe I would have thought it was crap.

And where'd you hear Spyro was coming out Dec. 25? I've heard nothing of the sort.
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Post by Daniel » December 4th, 2008, 8:43 pm

Not sure of Darkblade's source, but darkSpyro states "currently due for release Christmas 2009." Hmm... :(

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Post by Neal » December 4th, 2008, 8:49 pm

Well, I run my own Spyro site and all I can say is that 2009 is the closest release date anyone I know has heard of. Not sure where Christmas came from.

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Post by Darkblade » December 5th, 2008, 1:32 pm

Daniel wrote:Not sure of Darkblade's source, but darkSpyro states "currently due for release Christmas 2009." Hmm... :(
yep, thats were I got it from... I think it would be best if disney moved the date of this movie to sometime earlier before Xmas next year. I dont know how it takes to make a 2d film.

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Post by Ben » December 5th, 2008, 2:11 pm

Moving back by a week or so is totally doable...I'd even say keep the existing release date so as not to cause a perceived lack of confidence in their film and basically roll it out a week "early" by way of previews the weekend before and then go wide on the Tuesday or Wednesday before the "official" release date of December 25.

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Post by Once Upon A Dream » December 5th, 2008, 2:25 pm

Yeah,mostly small kids will the Alvin And Chimpmenks sequel,the Princess And The Frog is also for many other people.
Oh,by the way-I found those picture month ago in Disney Central Plaza:
Image

Image


Image

Image

(By the way,Ben-Why that little girl dislike Ariel now?).
[img]http://i43.tinypic.com/bfqbtk.jpg[/img]

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Post by Daniel » December 5th, 2008, 2:47 pm

Ben wrote:(after Ariel's Beginning, a six year old girl in the family wants nothing to do with Ariel again)
Lovely pictures, the last one shows us more of the villain. BTW, fixed them so we don't have to click each link.

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Post by Once Upon A Dream » December 5th, 2008, 3:57 pm

What I mean is that she thought Ariel's Beginning was bad in a way that made her dislike Ariel? (Which is sad to hear).
Yeah,and thanks :D the villain reminds me of the villain from Meet The Robinsons (What's his name? I haven't seen it),Tiana has a wedding dress in those picture? is that a spoiler?.
[img]http://i43.tinypic.com/bfqbtk.jpg[/img]

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Post by Neal » December 5th, 2008, 7:56 pm

Well without spoilers I can say his alias is 'Bowler Hat Guy'
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